Construction of a Regression Model of Return on Production Assets of an Oil-Producing Enterprise

Title	Construction of a Regression Model of Return on Production Assets of an Oil-Producing Enterprise
Authors	A. S. Savinkov¹ ¹St. Petersburg Mining University of Empress Catherine II
Annotation	The paper addresses the problem of constructing a multiple linear regression model describing the dependence of return on production assets on key production and economic factors using the example of Gazpromneft-Khantos LLC. Correlation and regression analysis methods were used to solve the problem. The resulting regression equation includes such factors as oil production, the number of active wells and Netback indicator. The coefficient of determination of the model was 0.97, indicating a high explanatory power of the model. An economic interpretation of the obtained coefficients was carried out, and a forecast of profitability for 2024–2026 was constructed. The results can be used for managerial decision-making in the oil and gas industry.
Keywords	return on production assets, regression analysis, oil production, economic-mathematical modeling, multiple regression, forecasting, oil and gas industry.
Citation	Savinkov A. S. ''Construction of a Regression Model of Return on Production Assets of an Oil-Producing Enterprise'' [Electronic resource]. Mathematical modeling, numerical methods, and software systems: Collection of materials from the 12th All‑Russian Scientific Youth School‑Seminar named after E. V. Voskresensky (Saransk, July 21–24, 2026). - pp. 196-199. Available at: https://conf.svmo.ru/files/2026/papers/paper104.pdf. - Date of access: 25.09.2026.

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Construction of a Regression Model of Return on Production Assets of an Oil-Producing Enterprise

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