On the Detection Limit of Bots Based on Timestamps

Title	On the Detection Limit of Bots Based on Timestamps
Authors	E. S. Kalabkin¹, T. F. Mamedova¹ ¹National Research Mordovia State University
Annotation	Simulation modeling is used to study the robustness of bot-detection algorithms in messaging systems against increasing behavioral sophistication of bots. A user is modeled as a self-exciting Hawkes point process, on top of which a hierarchy of six adversarial masking levels is constructed. A numerical experiment yields the detector degradation curve, reveals a paradoxical increase in detectability under more complete imitation, and establishes a fundamental ceiling on the quality of individual classification based on event timestamps alone.
Keywords	simulation modeling, Hawkes point process, bot detection, maximum likelihood estimation, adversarial adaptation.
Citation	Kalabkin E. S., Mamedova T. F. ''On the Detection Limit of Bots Based on Timestamps'' [Electronic resource]. Mathematical modeling, numerical methods, and software systems: Collection of materials from the 12th All‑Russian Scientific Youth School‑Seminar named after E. V. Voskresensky (Saransk, July 21–24, 2026). - pp. 92-94. Available at: https://conf.svmo.ru/files/2026/papers/paper81.pdf. - Date of access: 25.09.2026.